Arpit Mann

Arpit Mann

I'm an M.Sc. Astronomy student at IIT Indore, working toward computational astrophysics. I write numerical and machine-learning code for astrophysical problems, and I test whether a model is learning the physics or a shortcut.

Behind this text: tracer particles in a live, incompressible 2-D flow. Move your pointer to stir it.

What I work on

Computational astrophysics, from simulations to the data.

  • Numerical astrophysics

    Finite-volume hydrodynamics and plasma problems, through my M.Sc. courses in Astrophysical Fluids and Plasma and Numerical Techniques for Astronomy.

    Run the shock tube
  • Machine learning for time-domain data

    Testing whether flare-forecasting models predict events or only detect their onset, using TESS observations of M dwarfs.

    Read the manuscript
  • Space weather

    Predicting the storm-time Equatorial Electrojet over India from NASA OMNI solar-wind data.

    See the EEJ project

Research

Is the model forecasting the event, or noticing it has started?

Now
M.Sc. Astronomy, IIT Indore, since 2026
GitHub
github.com/arpitmann
ORCID

My interest is where data-driven models meet physical understanding. Machine learning is increasingly used to forecast astrophysical and space-weather events, but a high score only means something if the model is predicting the event rather than recognising its first moments. Much of my work is about designing tests that tell those two apart.

Alongside that, I'm building my foundation in numerical astrophysics through my M.Sc. courses in Astrophysical Fluids and Plasma and Numerical Techniques for Astronomy. I want to work where simulation, observation and learning meet.

Journal
RAS Techniques and Instruments
Authors
A. Mann (sole author)
Data
TESS, 20-second cadence, 80 M dwarfs
Code and data
doi:10.5281/zenodo.23278174
Under major revision

Onset leakage in ML stellar flare forecasting

I introduce a model-agnostic guard-gap cross-validation test that measures how much of a flare-forecasting classifier's score comes from reading the flare onset inside its input window, rather than predicting it. Applied to an LSTM forecaster on 80 M dwarfs (TESS 20-s cadence, leave-one-star-out), a 10-minute guard cut the robust mean ROC-AUC from 0.997 to 0.870, against a within-star permutation floor of 0.492 ± 0.026. The final ten minutes carry about a quarter of the above-chance signal.

Figure 1. What onset leakage looks like

A simulated M-dwarf light curve, about four hours across, with flares in red. Point at it to place a forecaster's 120-minute input window. If the last ten minutes of the window touch a flare's rise, the model can see the flare instead of predicting it.

Figure 2. How much of the score is forecasting?

Robust mean ROC-AUC, leave-one-star-out; the dashed line is chance. On the un-guarded task, a logistic regression on 16 summary statistics, with no temporal modelling, reaches 0.998 and matches the LSTM: evidence that the benchmark was measuring onset detection, not forecasting.
Type
Independent research project
Region
Indian sector
Data
NASA OMNI solar wind
Model and data
doi:10.5281/zenodo.20351375
Ongoing

Storm-time Equatorial Electrojet (EEJ) prediction

I built an XGBoost baseline and an LSTM model with an intensity-weighted MSE loss to predict the storm-time EEJ over the Indian sector from NASA OMNI solar-wind data. The full pipeline is deployed as a FastAPI REST service with a web dashboard.

SYM-H predicted 60 minutes ahead

—nT

Fetching the latest prediction…

~32%

MAE improvement on intense storms

−518 nT

SYM-H in the May 2024 Solar Cycle 25 extreme event, a documented domain-shift failure

The May 2024 event lies far outside the range the model saw in training. I document it as a failure case rather than hide it: knowing where a model breaks is part of the result.

Numerics

A shock tube you can run in this page.

Equations
1-D Euler, ideal gas, γ = 1.4
Solver
Finite-volume HLL, CFL 0.8
Second order
MUSCL-Hancock with a minmod limiter

The Sod shock tube is the standard first test of a hydrodynamics code: high pressure on the left, low on the right, released at t = 0. Its exact solution, a rarefaction, a contact discontinuity and a shock, is known, so every scheme can be checked against it.

Figure 3. Numerical solution against the exact Riemann solution

Exact solution Numerical cells t = 0.000 of 0.200 L1 density error — 0 steps

What to try

Raise the cell count or switch to 2nd order and watch the L1 error fall.

What to notice

The contact smears the most, because no pressure jump holds it together.

Coming next

My PLUTO jet simulation, and an orbital integrator comparing leapfrog with RK4 energy drift.

Projects

Other things I've built.

  • Oct 2023

    NASA International Space Apps Challenge

    Exoplanetary environment simulation, as team leader

    • Led a team of four to design and simulate 3D exoplanetary environments using NASA's open data
    • Modelled conditions for potential extraterrestrial habitability using physics-based algorithms
  • 2024

    Educational outreach

    Light-to-Mars model

    • Developed an Arduino-based interactive model using LEDs to visualise the speed of light and interplanetary distances
    • Designed to simplify complex astrophysical concepts for students

Experience

Where I've trained.

  • Jan 2025

    CSIR–National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi

    Trainee, Optical Radiation Metrology Training Programme

    • Completed a training programme on optical radiation metrology at CSIR-NPL
    • Gained hands-on experience in instrumentation and experimental data collection
  • 2024

    Starscapes Experience, Gurgaon

    Intern, Product Development and Outreach

    • Assisted in astrophysical data analysis and visualisation using Python and MATLAB
    • Collaborated on developing astronomy outreach material for diverse audiences
  • 2024

    Nehru Planetarium, New Delhi

    Participant, Astronomy Bootcamp

    • Attended workshops on cosmology, astrophysics and general relativity
    • Developed Python-based simulations for astronomical data interpretation

Education

Where I've studied.

  • 2026 – present

    M.Sc. Astronomy

    Indian Institute of Technology Indore

  • 2022 – 2025

    B.Sc. Physics (Hons), First Division

    Shivaji College, University of Delhi

  • 2022

    Senior Secondary, 90.0%

    CBSE

  • 2020

    Secondary, 94.2%

    CBSE

Key courses

Astrophysics and computation (M.Sc.)

Astrophysical Fluids and Plasma; Numerical Techniques for Astronomy

Physics (M.Sc.)

Classical Mechanics; Classical Electrodynamics; Quantum Mechanics and Spectroscopy

Physics (B.Sc.)

Mechanics; Waves and Oscillations; Electricity and Magnetism; Thermal Physics; Light and Matter; Modern Physics; Solid State Physics; Electromagnetic Theory; Quantum Mechanics I; Statistical Mechanics; Atomic, Molecular and Nuclear Physics; Research Methodology

Electronics

Electrical Circuit Analysis; Analog Electronics; Digital Electronics; Communication Systems

Mathematics and statistics

Mathematical Physics I–III; Abstract Algebra; Numerical Methods; Statistical Analysis in Physics

Computer science

Programming with Python; Data Analysis and Visualisation using Python; Database Management Systems; Introduction to Web Programming

Achievements and certifications

  • 2026

    All India Rank 465, IIT JAM 2026, for Astronomy admission to IIT Indore

  • Oct 2025

    World Space Week 2025 participation, Propagation Institute for Advanced Studies

  • Feb 2025

    Arduino Training (score 90%), Spoken Tutorial Project, IIT Bombay

  • Jan 2025

    Optical Radiation Metrology Training Programme, CSIR-National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi

  • Jun 2024

    Astronomy: Exploring Time and Space, Coursera, University of Arizona

  • May 2023

    IAAC 2023 (International Astronomy and Astrophysics Competition), qualified for the pre-final round

  • 2018–19

    District Topper, Vidyarthi Vigyan Manthan (VVM) 2018–19, national level

Skills

Programming

Python, C++, JavaScript, MATLAB, MySQL

Data and machine learning

Data analysis, XGBoost, LSTM

Web and deployment

HTML, CSS, FastAPI, Cloudflare Pages, GitHub

Tools and systems

LaTeX, Linux (Ubuntu), Nextcloud, Tailscale, Cloudflare Tunnels

Languages

English and Hindi (fluent), German (basic)

Research opportunities, questions, collaborations.

I'm looking for PhD positions in computational astrophysics. I'm always glad to talk about numerical methods, simulations, machine learning for astrophysical data, or a project you think I'd enjoy.

Email me

Email
connect@arpitmann.com
Institute
msc2603121004@iiti.ac.in
GitHub
github.com/arpitmann
LinkedIn
Arpit Singh Mann
ORCID
CV
Download PDF